World Cup rankings through time - Part 1

I'm a genuine sporting all-rounder: I watch cricket, tennis and rugby extensively, but frequently turn my attention to all but the really silly sports like synchronised swimming and rugby league. I enjoy women's competition too, and a rich variety of blog posts will come to reflect all this over the coming years, but first, obsession dictates that I get the 2018 men's football world cup out of my system.

France won, their second triumph coming only 20 years after the first, to equal Argentina and Uruguay's total. Croatia reached their first final, becoming the 13th nation to do so, and 10th from Europe. England reached the semis for only the third time but still went home ruing a missed opportunity that only fuels the endless national debate about over- and/or under-achievement.

Brazil fell in the quarter-finals for the third time in four tournaments. Mexico lost in the round of 16 for the seventh consecutive time. Germany's failure to negotiate the group stage was unprecedented, and even more surprising than Italy's absence from the tournament for the first time in 60 years. This is what excites me every four years as 63 matches unfold: it all adds to the data.

Each edition of this tournament makes a satisfying splash in the statistical sea of World Cup history, and unfailingly prompts me to go back to the start and refresh the data in order to contextualise the latest set of outcomes. This collection of results tells a story of international sporting evolution, that deserves two doses of colourful spreadsheet accompaniment and wordy, nerdy commentary.

I've divided the 21 World Cups into four eras and will present each in turn with scores allocated for each nation's achievement. The cumulative data illustrates the rise and fall of teams' fortunes over nearly a century, working towards a definitive ranking. I'll comment on three aspects in particular: the best teams; the more exotic outsiders; and England, who fall somewhere between the two.

(The scoring system, from the Fibonacci series, is a fair compromise between linear and exponential progressions for a knockout format, and closely resembles systems used in world sport rankings.)

The Early Years

Despite a hiatus of 12 years for World War Two, the 1950 edition is of a kind with its predecessors, and closely resembles 1930's inaugural tournament. Both took place in South America with only 13 teams after withdrawals by travel-shy Europeans; both had a group stage from which just four teams progressed. 1950 famously had no final, with Uruguay's iconoclastic win over hosts Brazil securing first place in a final four-team pool; my data conveniently ignores this technicality.

Between Uruguay's wins, first as hosts, then on neighbouring territory, Italy achieved the exact same feat, completing consecutive titles in France as war loomed (they top this initial table simply by turning up in 1950). The two mid-30s editions are dominated by Europe, with reciprocal refusal to travel best illustrated by the records of the Latin quartet in 17th place; 1934's all-European quarter-finals were a one-off. These were also the only two all-knockout World Cups, with no group stage.

Therefore, Egypt (trailblazers for the Afro-Asian bloc, or just Mediterranean neighbours?) made the short trip home immediately after defeat to Hungary in 1934, whereas Indonesia crossed the world for a solitary loss to the same opposition in 1938 - they've never been back. Cuba beat Romania in a replay before falling to Sweden, but were also never seen again. Speaking of never-to-be-repeated feats by North Americans, U.S.A. were World Cup semi-finalists in the very first tournament.

England debuted in 1950 with a team featuring Billy Wright, Stanley Matthews and Tom Finney, and started with a 2-0 win over Chile, but were eliminated after ignominious defeat to the United States. They had ignored the pre-war World Cups, considering the gimmickry of international competition beneath them. This is doubly annoying: such backward arrogance reflects poorly on my nation; but also, with the players we had back then, I really reckon we might've won one of them...

The Classic Period

After the chaos and acrimony of the first four tournaments, the World Cup finds its feet. Crucially, the format was both elegant and consistent: 16 teams in four groups of four, with half going home after three games, and half staying for the knockouts; five consecutive editions of this ilk were great news for statisticians but also memorable for their quality. Some of football's most enduring legends were created here, chief among which is that of Brazil as the sport's dominant force.

Finalists in 1938 and absent in 1950 in the aftermath of war, Hungary assembled their best ever side and cruised to the 1954 final, including an 8-3 group win over a German team battling to rebuild its nation's reputation having won only two previous World Cup matches. In a sliding doors moment, Germany won the final and shocked the world. By 1970, another final and two semis had followed and Germany had arrived, embarking on a 60-year journey of remarkable elite consistency.

In addition to Hungary, the Iron Curtain revealed the talents of Yugoslavia and Soviet Union, while Uruguay's continuing high standard completed a quartet of quarter-final consistency: these four reached the last eight 13 times between them, though never all together, with only Hungary's '54 final to show for it, whereas Italy and Czechoslovakia reached a final each but did nothing else.

Korea broke new ground in '66 but 1970, pioneer of global colour television coverage, was also the gateway to global participation, with debuts for Israel (a one-off), Morocco and El Salvador. Mexico, flagbearers for North America, reached the quarters as hosts after six group exits; Chile had gone one better as hosts in '62, the fourth and final South American semi-finalist to date; Sweden had gone one better as hosts in '58, reaching their only final. It was a good period for hosts...

England - led by Moore, inspired by Charlton, protected by Banks and (suddenly) spearheaded by Hurst - won the World Cup in 1966 at only their fifth attempt, becoming the fifth different holders of the trophy, before Argentina and decades before France or Spain. Home advantage helped, as it had Uruguay, Italy, Sweden and Chile before, and would later help Germany, Argentina, France and Korea, but the title was earned, and the squad's quality borne out by adjacent performances:

England lost their 1954 quarter-final to reigning champions Uruguay, yet to lose a World Cup match. In '58 they fell in a group play-off to the Soviets, ceding knockout limelight temporarily to neighbours Wales (their only appearance) and Ireland. Next, seeds of victory were sown with a 1962 quarter-final, won by reigning champions and eventual winners Brazil. Champions England reached a third straight quarter in 1970, only for '66 finalists Germany to exact excruciating extra-time revenge.

Early to Classic

Combining the two tables - taking only quarter-finalists to keep things tidy - shows Brazil eventually adding winning mentality to consistent quality for a clear lead. Uruguay and Germany are tied, with the latter in the ascendancy. Italy's twin wins preceded a barren spell before the sudden resurgence of Mexico 1970. Hungary and Czechoslovakia reached two finals each, and won't get close again.

Sweden's final was the culmination of a strong era dating back to the '30s. Ahead of them, England are 6th despite three refusals and a false start. Of those whose best is still to come, Argentina are outside the top 10 after failing to build on the 1930 final, while France and Spain have merely dabbled, to similar effect. Future cult heroes Netherlands are nowhere to be seen.

The Transition Phase

Please excuse the mess. The proliferation of names is due in part to the tournament's expansion to 24 teams in 1982, and the real mess is in the way it was handled: the two '70s editions stayed at 16 teams but introduced a second group stage, with no quarter- or semi-finals; 1982 built clumsily on the idea, with semi-final spots for winners of bizarre three-team pools; the next three tournaments were consistent but irksome, with only one third of teams eliminated after three group games.

At least there's plenty of colour in the continent column - albeit mostly in the bottom half - as The World Game finally earns its name. This list owes its sheer size to the next tier of nations, explored here as football tested its depth of quality, competing fiercely for limited places, yielding numerous isolated visits to the top table: Zaire, Haiti, Kuwait, Canada, Iraq and U.A.E. are yet to return.

Look though, there's Australia! They reached a 16-nation World Cup in 1974, with the game still in its immigrant-initiated infancy on these shores compared to the platform provided for the latest batch of globetrotting Socceroos, let alone the Golden Generation of a decade ago. Indeed, the '74 team's achievement is arguably on a par with the thrilling 'run' to the knockout phase of 2006.

Germany are top with two wins and two more finals, including three in a row to 1990. Argentina built a national mythology on their only two wins, coming over an eight-year period, before losing the '86 rematch. No cup final had ever been duplicated until these two met twice in a row; then Brazil and Italy repeated the 1970 final in 1994. Losers Italy can nonetheless be happy with a win, a final and a semi over four editions, whereas Brazil's fourth win broke a drought of no semi-finals since 1970.

Those are the Big Four in 1994, with Argentina replacing Uruguay in South America's two-pronged attack; the latter's output could only match that of Cameroon, Africa's first quarter-finalists in 1990 after Morocco finally got the continent beyond a group stage in '86. Mexico reached the quarter-final as hosts again, but otherwise strangely struggled to qualify, so positions 5-16 are a European affair.

Netherlands' famous consecutive '70s final defeats to host nations were followed by consecutive failures to qualify, as were France's heartbreaking consecutive '80s semi-final defeats to Germany, but it was still their best era so far. Spain started to earn their tag of talented underachievers with a couple of quarter-finals, but Poland had already achieved more, in their best ever era.

England's output over this time is a curate's egg: down in 11th, bookended by our three absences since debut, with the '70s nadir of double failure and 1993 catastrophe under Graham Taylor; but with three genuinely strong performances in between. In 1982 under Ron Greenwood we beat all three group opponents, including France, then drew with hosts Spain and eventual finalists Germany to be sent home unbeaten in five matches, one goal short of the semis - an underrated display.

The Bobby Robson World Cup era started poorly with a loss, a draw and a midfield decimated by injury and suspension. Then Gary Lineker scored five in two and the quarter-finals beckoned... Let's not speak of that game, but Argentina won the tournament, Lineker the Golden Boot, and Maradona both praise and notoriety. The legend of 1990 is well told: Pearce & Waddle's penalties, Gascoigne, Lineker again; for a 10-year-old Villa fan it was all about David Platt.

Early to Transition

Germany leapfrog Brazil atop the cumulative list after the two giants saw feast and (relative) famine respectively during the transition; except for 1994, Brazil's iconic heyday now appears almost a blip alongside Germany's relentless high achievement and evenly spaced tournament wins. Italy's two early triumphs stand out even more harshly: are they overvalued here? More on that in Part 2.

Argentina are the big climbers, from 11th to 4th after their two wins. Uruguay and Hungary, by this quarter-final metric, haven't added a single point and slip accordingly; the latter's fall allows England to remain 6th. Future champions France and Spain still languish outside the top 10.

The list of nations to reach the last eight has swelled from 24 to 30: Netherlands are the highest new entry; Poland and Belgium dip inside the top 20; Bulgaria and Romania enjoyed a memorable 1994. Cameroon we've already mentioned but, like Korea and others from the 'new continents', they're still on the fringes; higher up, Peru and Mexico still trail a host of Europeans as the old world dominates.

Hosting rights, similarly, are only gradually being wrestled from Europe's grasp: as illustrated in the top row shading, Europe initially enjoyed a two-to-one split with South America; later, Europe's hosting stake is reduced to 50%, but North America has a share of the other half - this influence is skewed by Mexico's late replacement of Colombia as host in 1986 for economic reasons.

That's where we'll stop for now. In Part 2 I'll analyse the 32-team Modern Era, including continuing but obstructed progress by non-European nations and the contextual effect of this year's Russian edition. Then, combining all the data, we'll explore different ways in which it can be interpreted to provide a range of possible rankings, always fair but inevitably subjective.

(A note to appease those observant and indignant enough to ask... My sport world doesn't recognise the political division of nations based on compass points: Germany's East-West arrangement was temporary; Ireland and Korea's North-South equivalents will eventually prove likewise.)