Melbourne Rebels: the story so far

On Friday night, the Melbourne Rebels kick off their 2018 Super Rugby season at home to the Queensland Reds. The Rebels are one of my favourite sports teams, and have probably brought me the most sport watching pleasure, in terms of quality and conviviality, since I moved here, so I’m going to take this opportunity to write about them.

The piece will conclude with a short season preview based on squad analysis. However, unlike other, bog standard season previews, it will begin with a longer, data-heavy summary of the team’s entire history. Fortunately for my kind readers, though, the team is only seven years old.

Even more self indulgent than my previous statistical exposes, such as “Why Andy Murray is brilliant,” and “Every possible angle on the World Cup draw,” this project is a response to questions that we ask each other at Rebels games, such as: “How long have we had the same bunch of flankers?” “Have we ever had a settled, proven, quality fly-half?” and “Isn’t it amazing how substitute props get so many caps for so little work?”

To achieve this, I’ve logged the number of minutes played in every season by every Rebels player. In rugby, with its eight-man bench invariably emptied during the second half, minutes played is a key statistic, as is a player’s ratio of games started to games played. There was a lot of data, but, believe it or not, I’ve distilled into what I believe are manageable chunks, to provide an overview.

I’ve divided the Rebels' seven-year history into three overlapping sections of three seasons each: 2011-2013, 2013-2015 and 2015-2017. For each period I’ve selected a ‘typical’ starting XV and bench, based on the data, and highlighted other significant or interesting contributions. The far right columns break down each period season by season: green S for starters, yellow B for the bench and red R for reserves.

The overlaps prevent any player being overlooked because his Rebels career spanned two separate periods. Any excessive credit received by key players from 2013 and 2015, who may be selected twice based on only one season’s work, will be negated in my final analysis, which presents a XV and bench of the leading players over the team’s entire history. Given the time span, this last list is less a ‘typical’ team than a hypothetical all-star selection.

Finally, each list shows two additional details: the source of each player, i.e. where they learnt to play rugby, to give an idea of where the Rebels find their talent; and whether each player has ever been internationally capped (Wallabies in yellow, others in green), to give an idea of the quality of the talent the Rebels have sourced over the years. Sadly, international rugby being the way it is, a player’s source and his international team are often two completely different things, but that’s a topic for another blog, or possibly a whole series of them…

2011-2013

Tasked with building an elite squad from scratch, but with some leeway provided by the competition organisers in terms of recruiting foreign players, the Rebels drafted a mixture of disillusioned squad players seeking first team action and experienced internationals seeking a new challenge. Many from both categories hailed from New South Wales, earning us the nickname Waratahs Reserves, which, as you’ll see, we’re only just starting to shake. Johansson, though, should be recognised as a home grown Victorian Rebel – and Wallaby, no less.

The Rebels beat the Brumbies in just their second game, then got their first win against a Kiwi team (the Hurricanes) and first away win, in Perth against the Force – and those were the only three wins from 16 games in 2011. There was steady improvement in the next two seasons: 2012’s four wins comprised two more against the Force, and two more N.Z. victims, including a memorable comeback against the mighty Crusaders; 2013 saw another Force double, a first victory over South African opposition in the Stormers, our first defeat of the Waratahs and five wins in total.

The players who logged over 3,000 minutes over this period, Robinson and Phipps, play in the two most specialist positions in rugby. They each played all three seasons, nearly always started and were rarely injured. The next three most prolific players, Henderson, Pyle and Mitchell, achieved the same at prop, lock and wing. Delve and Vuna were next at eight and wing, only relinquishing their shirts in 2013, to Higginbotham and English respectively. This was the sort of consistency of fitness and selection that we needed in order to gain a foothold in the competition.

Flanker was a less settled position: Saffy scraped past 2,000 minutes, mostly from 2011; Jones came close, but only by dividing his time between flanker and lock; Lipman, Davidson and Fuglistaller all cleared 1,000 minutes with one starting season each. In the backs, Gerrard and Inman both started whenever available in their two seasons each, while Mortlock, inaugural captain and bona fide Wallaby great, was inspirational whenever he was fit to play. Fly-half was a problem position, with Cipriani, Huxley, Woodward, Hilgendorf, Beale and O’Connor all tried there.

A word on props. Somerville is selected here to recognise the first season front row, in which he played every game. Weeks played more minutes over three years, but has a lower start percentage and minutes per game, even in the two seasons after the All Black’s departure; he played plenty of minutes and earned more Rebels ‘caps’ than Saffy or Vuna, but many of them were off the bench, because starting and bench props habitually share the 80-minute load. This will become even more typical in 2014, the year when the eight-man bench - including two props - was introduced.

2013-2015

By 2013 the overseas influence had waned, although a couple of Japanese recruits played a part, and you will always find a handful of Kiwis wherever rugby is played. New South Welshmen still dominate, but now share the interstate load with an increased regiment of Queenslanders and our first notable Western Australian. A clutch of new back rowers will prove more enduring than their predecessors, and we introduce young half-backs Stirzaker and Debreczeni, whose tandem tales of unfulfilled potential will mirror the team’s fortunes.

After 2013’s five wins we see our first backward step, with just four in 2014 and only one against overseas opposition. Importantly, there's a first win against the Reds, and of course we beat the Force – we beat them every year. 2015, though, was the Rebels’ breakthrough year, with seven victories from 16 games, starting with another memorable win against the Crusaders, this time over there – our first win outside Australia. There were two more away wins (one in Perth, of course) and we beat three N.Z. teams in total – it was becoming a habit, surely?

At the top end, three giants surpassed Phipps’ leading minutes tally from the first three years: Inman started all of his 47 games at centre and was rarely substituted, in fact he played every single minute in 2015; Higginbotham and Jones weren’t far behind with well over 3,000 minutes at eight and lock. However, only Fuglistaller and English also passed 2,000 minutes, reflecting less consistency of selection during these middle years than there was in the first three, as the squad transitioned towards players in their prime or with future potential.

Bench props accumulate caps as predicted, with Alo-Emile spreading nearly 2,000 minutes over nearly 50 games, and Ah-Nau’s red numbers typifying the lot of the much used substitute. The pack takes shape though, with Smith and McMahon emerging as quality Rebel Wallabies. With Burgess faltering, Stirzaker attempts to fill Phipps’ boots, but scrum-half is as problematic as fly-half, where Debreczeni – Cook Islander, Hungarian, a bit Chilean even – eventually grasps the poison chalice.

2015-2017

Apart from the usual generous contributions from across the ditch and the northern states, there are three squad composition trends to note here. First, that healthy block of yellow at the top means that the Rebels were served by plenty of Wallaby forwards in recent years - plus the outstanding Japanese eight, Mafi. More scattered through the list are the three players that reflect our recruitment from Fiji; sadly, we’ve turned two of these players into more Wallabies as a result. Finally, the bottom of the list shows the emergence, at last, of a handful of Victorian Rebels.

2015’s seven wins was repeated in 2016, and from only 15 games – technically our best season ever. However, the only overseas teams beaten were Japan’s debutant Sunwolves and South Africa’s Cheetahs – hardly big game. Five wins against Australians, including two each against the Reds and - of course - the Force, were nice, but reflected the weakness of the Australian conference rather than the Rebel’s proficiency at genuine Super Rugby level.

Then came last year’s disastrous effort… Amid mounting speculation about the future of Super Rugby and Australia’s participant teams, we did absolutely nothing to mount an on-field case for continuing inclusion, winning just one game – a cracker, admittedly, against the Brumbies. A draw in Durban was the closest we’d ever come to winning in South Africa – or beating the Sharks at all for that matter – but performances and results were largely embarrassing.

With only 15 games in each of the last two seasons, slightly fewer minutes were on offer, but it’s still notable that not one player exceeded 3,000 over the last three years; even leader Inman’s start percentage and minutes per game were slightly down. 10 men passed 2,000 though, more than over the previous two periods, split equally between forwards and backs. All of these 10 except Jones played all three seasons, and this consistency of selection may have contributed to the upturn in results. Consistency doesn’t equal quality though; the same players stagnated and failed in 2017.

Weeks also played three seasons, becoming the sole player to appear in all seven years - after Jones’ departure. His minutes are lower though, of course, because faithful bench props Alo-Emile and Ah-Nau kept compiling those colourful statistics peculiar to the role. The number eight shirt changed hands each year in this most recent period, with Higginbotham and Mafi compiling almost identical ever present statistics in 2015 and 2017 respectively, and All Black Thomson running them close in the intervening year.

Stirzaker and Debreczeni continued as the half-back pair. The decision to back them as developing youngsters in key positions was worthy, but it failed: our two relatively successful seasons would have instead seen genuine finals contention given more established half-back alternatives; the lack of quality was finally exposed last year. In the overall selection below, Debreczeni starts at 10 with fewer than 3,000 career minutes; this reflects badly on the club. Meanwhile, Stirzaker fails to pass Phipps’ minutes tally despite six Rebel seasons, and once being named as captain.

Overall

Here the true stalwarts are revealed. Inman clears 6,000 minutes over the last six seasons, barely missing a start. Jones has over 5,000 from the first year to 2016, switching between lock and flanker. English’s five years at centre and wing, usually starting, rarely substituted, place him third. Weeks has played more Rebels games, and seasons, than anyone, and banks 4,000 minutes despite only 48 per game. Seven more men have 3,000 minutes, from key position men Robinson and Phipps in the early years, still (sadly) to be superseded, to Smith and Fainga’a in more recent times.

Weeks had to be in the XV for sheer weight of minutes but his start percentage is low compared to Henderson, consigned to the role of bench prop and joined by Alo-Emile, who knows the territory. Ah-Nau warrants a mention for the sheer audacity of his 43-cap career, surpassing the likes of Ellison and Vuna in that ledger. Hodge makes the cut despite fewer minutes than other competitors, because he’s proven, versatile, current and can play full-back. There’s a six-two bench because no back has stuck around long enough to displace stalwart flanker Fuglistaller.

2018

Look, last year was horrible, but we go again. I blame recruiters for delivering an inadequate list. I blame outgoing coach Tony McGahan and his team for the insufficient fitness of the players over 80 minutes – a long standing issue – and for sometimes making faulty selections. There were injuries, lots of them, but some were probably avoidable and all would have been mitigated by adequate squad depth. Above all, the atmosphere of doubt and security engendered by Rugby Australia’s dithering over our future crippled the players’ focus and confidence – but why couldn’t our blokes somehow turn it into a positive, the way the Force did?

I leave you then with this year’s squad. Plenty of experience, plenty of Wallabies and plenty of ex-Force players under new ex-Force coach Dave Wessels. At scrum-half, the good news is that Stirzaker has departed to swell the ranks of itinerant Antipodeans in the northern hemisphere, and the even better news is that scrum-half Will Genia, all 88 Wallaby caps of him, has come the other way and ought to become a Rebels legend, leading us to finals and beyond.

The bad news is that fly-half remains a selectorial black hole. With recent incumbent Garden-Bachop discarded, two more Jacks on the horizon in McGregor and Maddocks have potential fiercer than their predecessors, but shouldn’t be handed key position responsibility this year. Instead Tayler Adams, unproven but rated by Wessels at the supporter Q&A event, where two contributors demanded an influential fly-half to provide game control and reliable place kicking, will get the nod.

The reality is that Jono Lance, double Super Rugby champion, potential Wallaby fly-half and also lauded by Wessels at the supporter event, was somehow recruited then lost, to the Reds. He would have been the perfect creative foil for Genia’s drive. After that late disappointment, it's become unclear where Debreczeni stands: he left Melbourne last year for a season in Japan, and is not listed in the official squad; however, coach Wessels spoke today about the fly-half's renewed enthusiasm for the game, and hinted that he will start on Friday.

There’s still weakness then, for sure - hooker is another thinly staffed position, with Hanson a big loss - and pre season results have been worrying, despite the quality, on paper, of many of the new recruits. It’s the biggest player turnover that any Super Rugby squad has seen, with 784 competition caps lost and 611 gained, but there’s a quality Rebel core – Weeks, English, Timani, Hodge, Fainga’a, Mafi – and some dynamite Force-led influx – Coleman, Genia, Haylett-Petty, Parling, Hardwick, Meakes – so, if they settle, then, who knows?

We’re back to 16 games in a season, and the initial target should be, for the first time ever, eight wins, although this time we can’t beat the Force twice to boost the ledger. Still, there’s nothing like watching the Rebels. Bring on Friday night!